文澜金融论坛（第269期）

摘要：

In Chinese culture, the digit 8 (4) is considered lucky (unlucky). We find that this numerological superstition has a significant impact across China’s stock, bond, foreign exchange, and commodity markets, affecting asset prices in both the primary and secondary markets. The superstition effect, i.e., asset prices ending with a lucky (unlucky) digit are far more (less) often than what would be expected by chance, is prevalent. The effect is driven by both investors’ reliance on superstition as an anchor to deal with ambiguity and the overoptimism of unsophisticated investors. Only when the superstition effect is driven by overoptimism, it is associated with overpricing.

主讲人介绍：

张劲帆教授获耶鲁大学金融学博士，清华大学电子工程学博士，哈佛大学统计学硕士，清华大学电子工程学硕士，清华大学电子工程学学士，北京大学经济学双学位学士；曾担任国际货币基金组织（IMF）经济学家、中国人民银行研究局访问学者、长江商学院助理教授，现任香港中文大学（深圳）经济管理学院副教授、博士生导师、博士项目主任，中国证监会中证金融研究院特聘研究员，深圳高等金融研究院宏观金融稳定与创新研究中心联合主任。在国内外顶级经济金融学学术期刊，包括 American Economic Review: Insights, Review of Financial Studies, Journal of Financial Economics, Review of Finance和《金融研究》等杂志发表论文多篇。研究成果获得Review of Finance, Best Paper Award Finalist, 2022; WFA Annual Meeting Best Paper Award, 2011。