基地研究员张传海副教授的论文“Modeling SSE 50 ETF Returns and Option Pricing: Evidence from a Score-Driven GARCH-Jump Approach”在重要学术期刊Mathematics发表。

摘要：Modeling stock returns and option pricing in the presence of jumps remains a central challenge in financial economics. This paper employs a novel score-driven GARCH-jump model to analyze SSE (Shanghai Stock Exchange) 50 ETF returns and option pricing. The main findings are as follows. First, we use 50 ETF spot returns to estimate conditional volatility and jump intensity, and find that the SDSDJ (score-driven separate dynamic jumps) model significantly outperforms conventional GARCH-jump models in model fitting. Second, we evaluate both in-sample and out-of-sample pricing performance using data from 50 ETF options, and find that the SDSDJ model achieves the lowest in-sample pricing error among all benchmarks, while its simplified variant—the SDJ (score-driven jumps) model—delivers the most accurate out-of-sample results. Third, the superior pricing performance of both models is robust across different levels of moneyness and DTM (days-to-maturity).

关键词：SSE 50 ETF option; score-driven time series models; option pricing; jumps

论文链接：https://doi.org/10.3390/math13203332

教师简介

张传海，数量经济学博士，中南财经政法大学金融学院副教授。主要研究领域为金融市场、金融计量和金融风险以及金融科技与大数据，研究论文发表于：经济研究、系统工程理论与实践、管理工程学报、数理统计与管理、Journal of Econometrics、Quantitative Finance、Pacific-Basin Finance Journal、Finance Research Letters、International Review of Financial Analysis和Economic Modelling等国内外期刊。